Governor Susana Martinez: The GOP's Best Hope?
In brief summary, I set out the advantages for the GOP of this scenario as follows;
1.The Electoral College picture for the Republicans in 2016 is daunting to say the least. To get to 270 EC votes the nominee would have to win Florida,Virginia,Ohio,Iowa plus all the 'Romney states" plus one from Colorado,Nevada or New Mexico. If Florida is lost it is game over immediately,if Virginia is lost then any two of Colorado New Mexico and Nevada would have to be won.
2.Governor Martinez, who currently has a 16 point lead in her re-election campaign would, obviously,be the best positioned VP candidate to deliver New Mexico and have a degree of influence with the Hispanic communities in Colorado and Nevada.
3. Historically vice-presidential candidates have about a 1% influence on the presidential candidates vote. Florida, with its substantial Hispanic population, was lost by Romney by less than 1%-clearly Martinez might be the deciding factor in that state and thus perhaps the entire election.
4. The obvious; Governor Martinez is a woman in this age of ascendency for women polticians and is Hispanic. Both those facts help the GOP with the Democrat's "war on women" nonsense and the ludicrous "racism" charges-they'd be done and dusted.
Now obviously I am not the only person to note these positives in relation to Governor Martinez. the left has its radar out and there have been two significant analyses about her. There was a long post in the far left "Mother Jones" with the compulsory personal attacks digs;" Martinez can be nasty,juvenile and vindictive" accompanied by a drawing of he looking like a maniacal harridan.
More recently the more balanced political analysis site "Electoral-vote.com did a piece of Governor O'Malley of Maryland as a potential VP candidate for the Democratic party and followed it with a piece on Governor Martinez where they referred to my American thinker article. It is instructive I believe to critique their critique as theirs is presented in the current environment.
Electoral-Vote.com began with a summary of the positive points I presented (they linked to my article which was appreciated) and then went on the attack from the left;
"On the other hand, she probably knew that as a good-looking woman whose political experience was limited to two years as a governor of an empty state, she would be compared to other Republican Vice Presidential candidates that had the same credentials. Also working against her is that the fact that she can be petty, vindictive, and weak on policy, an accusation that has also been levelled at previous female Republican Vice Presidential candidates. Most of all, she has never been tested on the national stage. Still, she is an intriguing possibility, at least on paper. Mother Jones has a long piece on her Vice Presidential prospects.
All this notwithstanding, the effect of the Vice Presidential candidate is marginal. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), Mitt Romney's running mate in 2012 didn't even bring in his own state, for example.'
I would hope that we are beyond a woman's appearance, being either "good looking" or perhaps not so good looking as has been levelled at Hillary Clinton as being a factor in candidate selection or appeal. I would also take note of and hope we are beyond the the repeat of the "petty weak and vindictive" Alinskyism lifted straight from "Mother Jones"
It is odd that Martinez two year experience of being governor was mentioned in respect of a possible run with Romney as she has served four years now and would have six year experience under her belt in 2016-experience is not a factor worth mentioning.
The "empty state" comment (actually 2.086 million population) is also puzzling as that doesn't seem to have been a factor in the selection of Joe Biden (Delaware population 91,700) or Lieberman (Connecticut 3.5 million) or the promotion of O'Malley (Maryland population 5.7 million)
Not having been tested on the national stage (apart from a very well received convention address) also doesn't seem to be a concern where Martin O'Malley is concerned in whose case "Martin who" might be the general reaction from the public.
The 1% vice-presidential candidate effect" linked to is, no doubt, historically correct and it was another of the Romney teams errors was to disregard that and suppose a liberal state like Wisconsin was going to switch to the GOP because of Ryan. On the other hand there can be absolutely no doubt that Plain's selection n 2008 lifted a moribund McCain campaign into the lead. In fact it was this same Electoral-vote.com site that, at the height of the "Palin bounce' was questioning whether Obama was done for. I believe that if Lehman Brothers was not allowed to collapse and McCain didn't "suspend" his campaign and subsequently perform so badly in the first debate, Palin would have shattered not only the 'glass ceiling" but also the 1% rule.
I am also of the firm belief that Governor Martinez,as long as he performs adequately in the crucible of the election campaign, would also break the 1% rule and by doing so could be the winning of the 2016 election