Tuesday, February 11, 2014

For 2nd Time In A Row McClatchy Poll Shows Palin Well Placed For GOP Nomination.

Far from the headlines in the latest McClatchy Presidential Poll LINK is this simple fact: Governor Palin, not holding any office, with little media coverage and barely any speculation that she may run in 2016 is polling remarkably. 

McClatchy Polling, one of the few to include Governor Palin in their analysis of the possible GOP's 2016 contenders for the presidential nomination has a new poll out which confirms Governor Palin's status amongst the front runners.

Forget the headline that the Palin haters will latch onto that shows her faring worse against Hillary Clinton in a head to head match-up. Ronald Reagan was at one stage 18 points behind President Carter-and that was after he had become the nominee! All that matters at this point is how Palin is faring with Republicans, who are the ones who will choose their nominee. 

As can be seen, there is nothing in it in this latest poll. Christie has dropped 5 points, not surprisingly, Huckabee, probably because of name recognition has tied him for first place. Amongst all the others in the poll there is no remarkable moves up or down, and all have moved either way well within the 3.4% margin of error.

"Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, Christie and Huckabee top the field, each with 13 percent. Rubio has 12 percent, and Paul and Ryan each have 9 percent. Bush and Palin each have 8 percent, while Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is at 7 percent."

Palin, who as I mentioned in the previous December poll analysis reproduced below for reference, has not indicated that she might be a candidate, is still on 8% in 4th place which is of course within the MOE of 2nd. 

It is clear to me, based partly on the latest PPP (D) Poll's finding that she, at  70%   LINK  is the most popular Republican today, that if Ted Cruz was removed from the polling Palin would garner most of his support and be at or near the top.

Reinforcing that a poll of over 62,000 Tea Party conservatives found support for Senator Cruz at 84% and Governor Palin at 64%. Christie and Bush were "dead last'
As they advise, whilst not a scientific poll it illustrates where the base is at. Again, if Cruz doesn't run then Palin would be at  the top.  LINK

Here are the McClatchy internals LINK

As can be seen as far as support from Republicans there is nothing between Palin/Cruz/Jeb/Rubio all are at 77/78% Only Rand Paul/Christie show a significant loss of GOP support at 74/75%. Paul on the other hand picks up the largest amount of support from Independents at 44%. Palin struggles with that group at present with her 27% bringing her overall support down but which is still within the MOE of all but the top three.

Rand Paul has the biggest loss of GOP voters to Hillary-a surprising 24%. For this poll, and at this point Paul Ryan clearly does best retaining by far the largest block of Republican support at 86% whilst losing only 11% to Clinton, and his Independent support is second only to Rand Paul. How much of this is carry over goodwill from the 2012 presidential election (Romney whom I have not included in this analysis also does very well) is a moot point.

However, we've been down this road before and things can change quickly (see;Christie, Chris. Giuliani, Rudy et al) in the meantime Governor Palin remains well placed should she decide to run which announcement might be expected after the mid-terms.

N.B. I would question the polls Republican/Lean GOP quotient of 41.2% when the 2012 mid-terms saw the GOP with 47.6%

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/02/11/3927373/mcclatchy-marist-poll-christie.html#storylink=cpy


Previous Analysis of December's McClatchy Poll

Palin is ahead of Marco Rubio whose star has faded, Former Senator and high profile 2012 primary candidate Rick Santorum and Governor Jindal who has dropped off the polling entirely, and at 8% she is well within the margin of error,  and only 4 points from second place. 

If Ted Cruz were not in the reckoning Palin would garner most of not all of his support and would be in first or near first place ahead of Christie the current flavor of the month who will in due course dip back into the pack.

Lets get the midterms done and dusted and if Governor Palin indicates a willingness to run watch her poll results rise accordingly. I include PPP Poll from November as a reinforcement to her status.

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 
  • Chris Christie 18% (15%)
  • Rand Paul 12% (9%)
  • Paul Ryan 11% (13%)
  • Ted Cruz 10% (7%) 
  • Jeb Bush 10% (10%)
  • Sarah Palin 8%
  • Marco Rubio 7% (12%)
  • Scott Walker 4% (2%)
  • Rick Santorum 4% (2%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (4%)
  • Undecided 13% (25%)
Survey of 419 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted December 3-5, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013are in parentheses.
Buried amongst the statistics, and far from the headlines in the latest PPP Presidential Poll is this simple fact.


Governor Palin, not holding any office, with little media coverage and barely any speculation that she may run in 2016 is polling remarkably. Palin is ahead of Former Senator and high profile 2012 primary candidate Rick Santorum and Governor Jindal, and at 7% she is well within the margin of error, behind by only 2 points, of  Senator Marco Rubio and ex-VP candidate Paul Ryan.

The top three putative candidates Governor Christie Senator Cruz and former Governor Bush are hardly miles ahead with their 12-15% favouritism rankings. It would be stating the obvious that if Senator Cruz did not run that the majority of his support would go to Palin and she would be either at the top or very close to it.

The other key facts are that amongst the decided/not others
Palin + Cruz=21%

Thus the Ryan/Rubio/Jindal supporters at 23% hold the Tea Party vs Establishment (who would need at least 18%)balance

Governor Palin's ranking is actually an increase from the last time she was considered (which is rarely which fact in itself depresses her rankings) and bodes extremely well for her prospects should she make a major announcement that she was either seriously considering running, or was forming an exploratory committee. If she actually did run it would be foolish not to believe that her ranking would go much higher and she would be a serious contender.

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