Monday, March 18, 2013

CNN Poll; Palin 58%/36% Favorables With Republicans; Meaningless 17%/78% With "liberals" Distorts Overall Result

CNN has its latest polling AT THIS LINK out in conjunction with ORC . The poll gives Sarah Palin an overall 34%/58 % favorable/unfavorable rating.

Interestingly,  the poll comes out after Palin is once more in the headlines, and after there being no similar poll since June 2011.

Why release an unfavorable poll now? Perhaps it might have something to do with the GOP Establishments war on conservatives, as demonstrated by Karl Rove's new anti-Tea Party candidate selection group, or the hints from Jeb Bush that he may run in 2016.

The last thing the Beltway wants is a viable, vigorous and most of all candidate selecting activist. Palin. Ted Cruz clearly stated when introducing her at CPAC, Palin can make or break a candidates winning ability witness Cruz/Fischer/Ayotte etc etc. This is the antithesis of the Beltway's plans and they will do all they can to stop her.

That aside let look at the cross tabs from the CNN/ORC poll AT THIS LINK

Firstly, who was polled? Answer Democratic Party supporters made up 33% of the responders, and only 25% of responders were self identified Republicans with the balance of 43% being Independents/others.

This 8 point Dem/GOP gap is of course not reflected by even the 2012 presidential election results, and certainly not by the 2010 mid-terms. Neither will it, I suspect, reflect what will be the result of the 2014 mid-terms.

Secondly, and the most important factor as an indicator of Palin's support from those who count-i.e. Republican voters, how did share fare with that group? Palin has a 58%-36% favorablity ratio. Not  that a poll was needed to prove that-one glance at the massive enthusiasm for her at CPAC would have been enough for confirmation.'

Why then the overall 34% /58% result? The cross tabs tell the tale. Amongst self-identified "liberal"
the ratio is 17% favorable to 78% unfavorable, and amongst Democrat's the ratio was 14%/77%.

What liberals and Dem's think of Palin doesn't amount to a pitcher of warm spit as a noted Dem once said. As far as Palin's influence in the party and, vitally amongst GOP primary voters all that matters is the near 60% favorable rating. That number also matters if Palin ever decides to make a run for the presidency.