Monday, February 25, 2013

Major Betting Site Drop Odds Against Palin Winning 2016 Presidential Election By 16 Points

The significant international betting site PaddyPower AT THIS LINK had Sarah Palin at 66 to 1 odds to win the 2016 presidential election back on November 3rd. Now, only three months later the odds have dropped
16 points to 50 to 1.
This movement coincides with a sharp spike in Palin's 
favorability to nearly 55% in this new poll AT THIS LINK

Surprisingly, in their November 3rd 2012 poll, they had Mitt Romney 9 to 2 as the second favorite, after Paul Ryan at 7 to 1. Gamblers would have been taking a punt for a very short time possibly, as if Romney was elected on the 6th, then of course he stood the best chance of being elected in 2016, from the GOP anyway.

As however he lost, then in all probability it was goodbye to their money as well, as Ann Romney has said that this would have be his last campaign ever if he lost. On the other hand, what politicians say and do can be different things, but when a wife advises something perhaps that can be taken as read.

Palin at 66 to 1 was at long odds, only Donald Trump's at 100 to 1 were longer, but Palin has faced long odds and won all her life so nothing unusual for her there. As for long odds, who would have placed a bet at even 1000 to 1 on an obscure, Black, junior senator with a Muslim name to be president in 2008 back in 2004?

The highly respected political analyst "The Votemaster" at Electoral had this to say and, given his record, he may well be right about this one too.
"The two people with the longest odds are Sarah Palin (66 to 1) and Donald Trump (100 to 1). The astute bettor can no doubt make some money here"

Here was Paddy Power's betting table November 3rd 2012 and only one thing was certain about it-the odds, and prospective candidates, would change over time and, they most certainly have as I predicted.

Tuesday 1st November 2016, 22:00
US Presidential Election 2016

Here is The same table as of February 23rd 2012;

Palin has also moved into the second tier of prospective 
candidates for the GOP 2016 nomination at 25 to 1.
This puts her with the likes of Rand Paul 
and Scott Walker. Palin has of course not declared 
or indicated she would run in 2016. There could be 
little doubt that if she did declare, or even give 
a strong indication she might, that the odds 
against her would drop sharply and she would 
be amongst the top tier.

In the meantime the fact that people, not pundits,
are putting real money, i.e. their own, on the line is an 
indication of how she is perceived as a genuine 
possibility.The fact the at the odds are shortening 
speaks volumes too-watch this space.