Friday, February 1, 2013

Harper Poll; If Gov.Parnell Doesn't Run Palin Is The Republican's Choice For 2014 Alaskan Senate Seat

The latest Harper's Poll looking at the upcoming 2014 race for the senate seat from Alaska currently held by Democrat Mark Begich finds Sarah Palin the GOP's choice to represent the party if current Governor Sean Parnell doesn't choose to run and even if he did she is only less than 5 points behind him at this stage.

Palin also has the highest favourables apart from Parnell amongst Republicans 56% to 38% and all voters as a GOP person. Her unfavorables are high because, of course, when Dem's are asked about her they hate her with the violence of 1000 suns.

In a head to head with Begich, Palin is well within striking distance at 6.27 points behind and that is of course before any campaigning commences. For Palin to choose to run would be a brave decision as if she lost, either in a primary or in the general election any future run for office and would be most likely precluded and her influence elsewhere would be diminished. This is explored in detail AT THIS LINK

Her are the Harper Poll findings from The Argo Journal

Friday, February 01, 2013

Poll Watch: Harper Polling (R) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Sean Parnell (R) 45.93%
  • Mark Begich (D) 40.03%
  • Not sure 14.04% 
  • Mark Begich (D) 46.64%
  • Sarah Palin (R) 40.37%
  • Not sure 12.99%
  • Mark Begich (D) 43.93%
  • Mead Treadwell (R) 33.54%
  • Not sure 22.53%
  • Mark Begich (D) 52.29%
  • Joe Miller (R) 29.35%
  • Not sure 18.35%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Sean Parnell 50.13% / 38.21% {+11.92%}
  • Mark Begich 47.58% / 39.05% {+8.53%}
  • Mead Treadwell 31.60% / 27.00% {+4.60%}
  • Sarah Palin 33.68% / 59.98% {-26.30%}
  • Joe Miller 21.42% / 55.94% {-34.52%}
GOP Senate Primary
  • Sean Parnell 31.52% 
  • Sarah Palin 26.65% 
  • Mead Treadwell 14.33%
  • Joe Miller 12.32%
  • Not sure 15.19% 
Survey of 1,157 likely voters was conducted January 29-30, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 2.88 percentage points.  Party ID: 30.94% Republican; 14.95% Democrat; 54.11% Other.  Ideology: 32.93% Somewhat conservative; 32.32% Moderate; 21.26% Very conservative; 10.89% Liberal.  Click here to view crosstabs.
Inside the numbers:
In head-to-head matchups against Democratic Senator Mark Begich, Parnell is the only Republican who starts out with a lead (Parnell 46%, Begich 40%). Parnell’s strength is among younger voters 18-to-35 and 36-to-45 years old who pick Parnell 43%-38% and 51%-36% respectively.
Parnell leads among Taxes & Spending voters (52%-37%), National Debt voters (70%-17%) and Oil & Natural Gas voters (49%-37%) while Begich leads with Health Care voters (66%-19%) and Economy voters (45%-41%). The two are tied among Jobs voters (41%-41%).
Palin trails Begich 40%-47%. Palin wins among Men (46%-42%) but trails Begich with Women (51%-36%). Begich enjoys stronger support among Democrats (90%) than Palin does among Republicans (68%). Independent and third party voters prefer Begich (52%-34%).
Joe Miller is the only candidate who lets Begich get above 50% on the ballot. Miller’s weakness in a general election results from his failure to win Somewhat Conservative voters. While Parnell (64%-20%), Palin (54%-31%) and Treadwell (45%-30%) beat Begich with these voters, Miller trails 38%-39%.
In a GOP Senate primary, Republicans who consider themselves “Very Conservative” give Palin the edge over Parnell 26%-25%. Parnell’s strength is fueled by “Somewhat Conservative” voters who pick him over Palin 39%-25%.
Palin’s standing is not the result of her being unpopular with Alaska Republicans. Fifty-six percent of Republicans hold a favorable opinion of her, while 38% say unfavorable. The problem for Palin is that Sean Parnell has a 74% favorable image with Republicans, 16% say unfavorable.
Joe Miller has a net -9% unfavorable image rating (36%-47%) with Republicans. Mead Treadwell boasts a solid 42% favorable, 19% unfavorable image among Republicans.