Saturday, February 23, 2013

A Major Spike In Poll Support For Palin-Caused By CPAC Invite And Todd's Iron Dog Race?

The six month, and even more strikingly one month, poll result for Sarah Palin at AT THIS LINK show an unusual result. After drifting with slight rises and dips for some months there has been a major upswing for her as illustrated below. The upswing comes after Palin announced she was leaving Fox news with the subsequent leftist media/Blog commentary that she was "fired" and she was now "washed up and irrelevant".

She was so "irrelevant' that her decision to leave Fox (not "fired" from Fox of course) received massive media coverage. Then, as is typical for Palin, after she was written off, it was announced she would be a major speaker at CPAC which, of course, received, once again, massive media coverage.

It may be that, coming at a time when the GOP is having structural problems, many look to her upcoming speech as giving the conservative element direction and leadership which has given her this poll lift. 

The fact of her husband Todd, and his racing partner, participating in the gruelling "Iron Dog" race may have added a warm human interest element to her profile at the same time.

Whatever the reason for the poll spike it confirms, not that it was needed of course, that Sarah Palin is anything but 'irrelevant'

*NB; I have posted the on-line disclaimers below the graphs

As can be seen there has been an unusual and dramatic spike in the last month with the major lift in the last week

*Yes certainly, the Election Meter poll is an on-line poll and can be discounted to a degree because of that. However, when Palin was at her absolute nadir in this poll in 2010 at 19.2% her enemies would have seized on it as being representative of a general feeling. 

There is some degree of validity to that view, although it is distorted and extreme, but on the other hand the steady, seemingly inexorable rise since then must also reflect a wider reality-which will of course be ignored by her enemies.

The longer term graphs which, because of the time frame involved, must be valid in the wider context they support. Surely the absolute polling height of 72% in 2008 ) was a genuine reflection of reality at that time.