Saturday, October 13, 2012

(Update;It's Happening?) Could Obama Get Hit By Stock Market Crash Like McCain And Suffer Route? Market Analyst Says "Yes"

Update: It's here?

AP: DOW Drops More Than 200 Points

With the addition of Sarah Palin to the ticket in 2008 the McCain campaign, which was lagging in the polls overtook candidate Obama. The left, and GOP turncoats, who after the 2008 election blamed Palin for McCain's loss, now advise that "the VP selection doesn't influence anyone's votes". 

Even if that is the case for Independents, there is no doubt whatsoever that Palin motivated the GOP voters, who had been lukewarm to McCain, to support the ticket.

If the massive stock market collapse had not happened the one can speculate, surely with a  fair degree of certainty, that the election would have been a lot closer, if not won by McCain/Palin. 

If there had been no crash, no McCain "campaign suspension" then it would seem unlikely that Indiana and North Carolina would have gone to Obama. Further, Florida and Ohio were lost to McCain by a slim margin-under the worst possible electoral conditions, and may well have gone to him otherwise.With those states, and only three other states Bush won in 2004, Virginia/Iowa/Colorado. McCain would have won.

Therefore President Obama owes his election, in no small part (or at least the large size of it) to the stock market crash of 2008. If, with the polls showing a fragile lead in the Electoral College for Obama now (and his being behind in the popular vote polls) after his disastrous debate performance, the share market crashed before the election then Romney stands every chance of a landslide victory.

Is such a crash possible?

Here is the latest snapshot of the share market from 
Reuters via Yahoo Finance

Wall Street posts worst week since June, banks weigh

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks wrapped up their worst week in four months, led lower on Friday by financial shares as results from Wells Fargo and JPMorgan ignited concerns about shrinking profit margins for big lenders."If we keep getting negative reports, selling will pick up," The S&P 500 closed right above its 50-day moving average, barely enough to avoid going into the weekend with a technical red flag hanging over the market."

Here is the technical analysis from Anthony Cherniawski at the noted financial news accumulation site "Market Oracle" from England: (For the technical chart see the article 


Stock Market Crash Starts Here

"Well, folks, it appears that the market is going full circle.  Sunday is day 1,314 from the March 9, 2009 low.  Obviously the market cannot bottom on Sunday, but it appears that the crash scenario is getting more and more serious.  The Head & Shoulders neckline at 1430.75 and the Orthodox Broadening Top trendline await us just below current levels. According to Chris Carolan’s work, today and Monday are the designated panic days, while Tuesday and Wednesday may be the mop-up days for waves (4)-(5) and [4]-[5].  This is the way I see it at the present juncture.  All we need is to trigger the two sell signals and the trap door open"

This article comes after his previous days analysis which includes this quote AT THIS LINK

Stock Market Pop and Drop
"This suggests that after a brief rally (which may already be over), the market resumes its downward spiral."

It would be ironic if a crash like 2008's happened just before the election, and Obama, who promised so much resulting from an economic calamity, went out by the same mechanism he came in by. In point of fact the economy, unemployment wise at least, is not better than when he came in with such promise and that, in itself, irrespective of whether a crash happens or not, may, or should, be enough to see him defeated.

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