Monday, September 10, 2012

Unimpeachable Leftist Silver At N.Y.Times"538" Shows Statistical Proof That Palin Didn't Cause McCain's Loss

Nate Silver, the resident psephologist at the New York Times "538" poll analysis and political comment column lays to rest, hopefully permanently, the leftist nonesense that meme that "Sarah Palin caused McCain to lose the 2008 election.

The source, Nate Silver of the New York Times (hardly a Palin supporter site) being a Dem who made his reputation at the far left Palin hate site "Daily Kos", and in fact because of it, makes the following of value.

 I see it as a counter to the "Palin cost McCain the election" rubbish which shows up often on leftists sites and Twitter. After Palin's nomination. and during the inter-period between that and the Lehman collapse the  McCain/Palin team were in the lead.

Here, from a statistician and especially because he is a leftie, is his confirmation of what caused McCain to lose which can be thrown back at anti-Palin posters.

"Rather, it was what the model did in September of that year, when it detected very, very quickly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers that John McCain’s goose was cooked, with Barack Obama’s projected probability of winning the Electoral College increasing by about 25 percent in a period of just 48 hours."

This follows on from his previous analysis:

"And in 2008, it’s not quite clear what would have happened if not for the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which occurred about two weeks after the party conventions. Mr. Obama very probably still would have won, but it might have been by a smaller margin had the economic problems not become so acute so quickly."

Here are the actual figures and history from 2008:

When the GOP convention opened on September 1st 2008, with the first day cancelled like the 2012 Tampa conventions, candidate Obama had a 4 and a half point lead over John McCain 48.8 to 44.3.
On the first real day of the convention McCain was behind Obama by a huge 6.4 points 49.2 to 42.8
In four days from Sarah Palin's vice-presidential nomination acceptance speech on September 3rd , on September 7th, the McCain/Palin team went into the lead by 1 point 46.7 to Obama's 45.7
On the 9th day from the opening of the convention the McCain/Palin lead was 2.4 points over Obama and huge turnaround from the 6.4 point deficit.
Thus Palin's acceptance speech saw a 9% increase in support from the night of her address for McCain/Palinand at its height the McCain/Palin convention bounce was 3.7 points.

                                                                                      OBAMA              McCAIN/PALIN