Wednesday, September 5, 2012

About That Florida Poll-Nil Desperandum

PPP Polling (D) has a new poll out showing Sarah at 3% in Florida. Whilst not the best result it has to be tempered with the realization that they also polled Rubio (who led Jeb Bush interestingly) as possible 2016 candidates too. 

No doubt if the voters hand had any indication that Palin was an actual candidate she woudl have done better  in this poll.
Of course Florida would be major challenge for Sarah under those circumstances. However, if she ran I would expect her to have won both Iowa and South Carolina by the time Florida was up.
New Hampshire might also be a challenge but if she had good momentum coming out of Iowa it would be winnable or she could have a good showing at least.
Thus even if she did poorly in Florida it could be written off as a "local"derby and attention would go to the next up states. 
I would think her best bet would be to do as Obama did in 2008 against Clinton-have a huge ground game from loyal people (like at C4P) and pick up all the small caucus states to build an unbeatable lead whilst winning some majors like SC.
Palin winning the 2016 primary campaign might well boil down to the loyalists total dedication and efforts a year ahead of any primary caucus.