Tuesday, June 17, 2014

As Hillary Declines In Polls Electoral College Map Shows She is Not A Shoo-In Vs.Palin In 2016

Newt Gingrich basically has written off the GOP's 2016 chances if Hillary Clinton is the nominee for all these reasons 

" Hillary Clinton regularly brushes off the idea of a 2016 presidential bid. But if she were to run, at least one prominent Republican thinks his party would be completely outmatched.
"The Republican party is incapable of competing at that level," Gingrich said 
"First of all, she's very formidable as a person," he said. "She's a very competent person. She's married to the most popular Democrat in the country; they both think [it] would be good for her to be president. It makes it virtually impossible to stop her for the nomination."
In addition to having Bill Clinton's support, Hillary Clinton would also have the backing of President Barack Obama, who will still be a "relatively popular president," Gingrich added. "Trying to win that will be truly the Super Bowl." (read the rest at the LINK).
Since Gingrich made that remark last December the political atmosphere has changed in the respect of President Obama being "relatively popular" with RCP having him down to 42% approval today. It may well be that, as with a number of presidents in the last 6 months of their term, President Obama is very unpopular in 2016. 

This is a major concern of Hillary supporters who see Obama as, for the second time, the destroyer of her presidential hopes as can be seen in this article; "Suddenly Hillary is not odds on the be elected president in 2016" LINK. And further, we see for the first time a significant decline in her support;"

Hillary Clinton drops 18 points in 18 months in Bloomberg poll"  LINK

On a political level, as Iraq descends into chaos, the memory of Hillary Clinton's support for President Bush's invasion of Iraq rankles still with some on the left. The murmurs from "progressives" at the likes of "Daily Kos" for Elizabeth Warren or even Bernie Sanders to declare are becoming louder too.

If in 2016 the economy has not recovered and is in fact in a parlous situation then history shows, as with John McCain in 2008, it doesn't matter who the candidate for the party holding the presidency is, no matter how prominent and capable, or who the challenger is, no matter how unknown or judged incapable, there will be a landslide to the challenger. In that situation then Hillary would lose.

But if the economy is in a recovery situation and President Obama is "relatively  popular" is Hillary Clinton guaranteed of victory-the Electoral College map says otherwise. In effect nothing has changed from the Romney campaign of 2012. The Republican candidate needs to win Florida/Virginia/Ohio. If any one of those three is lost then Republican supporters can turn off their televisions and go get whatever drink best drowns their sorrows.

Those three states were won by President Obama in 2012 by easily overturned margins so this is a more than reasonable scenario: Florida won by 0.86%  Ohio 2.98%  Virginia 3.88%

If those three are won the game is still not in the bag but it looks promising. Any one of Iowa/Colorado/Nevada would do to provide the winning Electoral College margin (with a tie and the presidency decided by the House) as indicated in the map above. In my opinion Iowa (5.81%) would be the best chance for the GOP presuming the candidate is a conservative.

A win in Colorado would provide an absolute majority; 272 to 266 without Iowa or Nevada or the House being required. And of course Iowa plus Nevada without Colorado would also provide an absolute majority.

All things being equal i.e. an unpopular second term for President Obama and the economy still not in full recovery and the normal turn of the historic electoral wheel the GOP has every chance of victory even if Hillary is the nominee. If she is not the nominee then even New Hampshire, or New Mexico if Governor Martinez is on the ticket is in play as well.