Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Outstanding Statistical Analyst Review Of PPP Poll:Shore Up Base More Important Than "Moderate" Appeal As Palin Leads GOP Pack



  • National Poll January 29, 2014 - Public Policy Polling
    .......Candidate......Favorable...Unfavorable...Not sure
    (1) Sarah Palin.........70%..........20%..........10%...
    (2) Mike Huckabee.....64%..........18%............18%...
    (3) Rand Paul............58%...........21%............21%...
    (4) Paul Ryan............58%...........18%............24%...
    (5) Jeb Bush..............56%...........18%............26%...
    (6) Ted Cruz..............45%...........20%............35%...
    (7) Chris Christie.......40%...........38%............22%...
    The winning demographics: Christian 76.9%, Blue Collar 61%, Women 53%


      The conservatives answer to 538.com's famous psephologist Nate Silver is "technopeasant" who posts analytical wisdom at; Conservatives4Palin "technopeasant' has undergone an interesting analysis of the latest PPP Polling (D) outfits polling on the current state of the Republican 2016 race for presidential nominee.

      Quite rightly, given the source, there is a caveat, and of course we are far far away from the actual primary campaign that such matters can rightly be considered auguries but there are some important wider points raised.

      Here is technopeasants analysis and I would point out the major discussion, as I see it, of the need to consider the conservative base as the priority. I have my own overview of the PPP poll with links to it and a discussion of what it might mean as far as a GOP 2016 ticket at this link.

      With thanks to C4P and technopeasant whose views should be disseminated as widely as possible.

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        I know what I wrote about being leery of the numbers posted by PPP (Public Policy Polling) for Sarah's current favorables and unfavorables but something interesting happened today;.

      • Follow along:

      • First I am going to give the favorable/unfavorable for the GOP candidates offered for selection showing the support they have within their own party vs. GOP "supporters" (party members + conservative independents)

      • GOP Supporters

      • Jeb: 61/18 56/18
        Christie 45/35 40/38
        Cruz 49/19 45/20
        Huckabee 68/15 64/18
        Rand Paul 61/20 58/21
        Ryan 66/13 58/18
        PALIN N/A 70/20

      • Now I am going to break the "support" down by each candidate by demographics:

      • VERY CONS SOMEW CONS MOD WOM MEN

      • JEB 60/16 61/12 41/33 54/19 59/17
        CHRISTIE 32/45 46/32 44/33 39/39 41/37
        CRUZ 62/11 44/20 13/37 38/20 51/20
        HUCK 77/10 67/16 39/38 62/16 66/20
        R PAUL 75/11 55/21 32/38 51/23 65/18
        RYAN 67/13 66/12 30/36 54/18 62/18
        PALIN 84/9 72/17 44/41 69/20 71/20

      • Conclusions:

      • 1) When you compare the party membership support vs. the actual voter support for the GOP you can see for each candidate there is some slippage between the two. Thus extrapolating I can safely say that if Palin was polled strictly among GOP party members her favorables would have been in the mid 70 range.

      • 2) But to the demographic breakdown what is clearly shown is that Palin is still extremely popular among conservatives ( a caveat this poll was taken between Jan 23-26 before her Facebook support of John McCain) but also is tied for the lead with Chris Christie in favorability among moderates and leads in favorability among both women and men.
        Of course the critics of this poll will suggest that she is too polarizing and will not pick up support "across the aisle". But I ask what good did this line of thinking do in the last election?

      • Now folks if there is one bald-faced lie all conservatives need to rally around is that our side loses presidential elections because we don't pick up the "squishy moderates". When you only win the popular vote in one of six presidential elections since 1992 and you run moderate to somewhat conservative candidates like Bush 41, Dole, Bush 43 (twice), McCain and Romney and to boot clear evidence shows that millions of white conservatives did not show up to vote in either 2008 or 2012 you have to conclude perhaps it's more important to shore up the conservative base before you do anything else like running around claiming we can't win unless we can attract more Obama supporters to our tent. There's a Biblical verse: "Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother's eye, and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye? Take the plank out of your own eye first, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother's eye."

      • Using a sports analogy, when you introduce a new QB to playing as a starter the head coach wants to make damn sure he knows the basic playbook before he introduces him to more risky or flamboyant plays or has him changing the play at the line of scrimmage at will.
        The number one priority of our side should be to solidify the base above anything else. Nothing is more important going into 2016. And of course we all know the person most capable of doing that: Sarah Palin.

      Update:I think I should take a moment to explain today's PPP poll on the GOP "candidates".
      What PPP did is they polled several candidates favorable/unfavorables but not Sarah Palin and broke it down by "Republicans" meaning paid-up members of the party.
      Then later they segregated the GOP "candidates" for favorable/unfavorables and now included Palin in the mix. But also what they did they now polled "GOP voters" which includes party members + CONSERVATIVE INDEPENDENTS who are not party members. 
      That is why the there are two different totals.
      Now finally the demographic breakdown is based on the latter measurement of F/UF and not just party members.