Thursday, December 12, 2013

McClatchy Poll Show Gov. Palin Passes Rubio & 4 points From 2nd Place For GOP nomination With No Indication From Her That She Is Running.

Far from the headlines in the latest McClatchy Presidential Poll is this simple fact: Governor Palin, not holding any office, with little media coverage and barely any speculation that she may run in 2016 is polling remarkably. 

Palin is ahead of Marco Rubio whose star has faded, Former Senator and high profile 2012 primary candidate Rick Santorum and Governor Jindal who has dropped off the polling entirely, and at 8% she is well within the margin of error,  and only 4 points from second place. 

If Ted Cruz were not in the reckoning Palin would garner most of not all of his support and would be in first or near first place ahead of Christie the current flavor of the month who will in due course dip back into the pack.

Lets get the midterms done and dusted and if Governor Palin indicates a willingness to run watch her poll results rise accordingly. I include PPP Poll from November as a reinforcement to her status.

Tuesday, December 10, 2013


Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 
  • Chris Christie 18% (15%)
  • Rand Paul 12% (9%)
  • Paul Ryan 11% (13%)
  • Ted Cruz 10% (7%) 
  • Jeb Bush 10% (10%)
  • Sarah Palin 8%
  • Marco Rubio 7% (12%)
  • Scott Walker 4% (2%)
  • Rick Santorum 4% (2%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (4%)
  • Undecided 13% (25%)
Survey of 419 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted December 3-5, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013are in parentheses.
Buried amongst the statistics, and far from the headlines in the latest PPP Presidential Poll is this simple fact.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/181849318/Public-Policy-Polling-November-Presidential-Poll

Governor Palin, not holding any office, with little media coverage and barely any speculation that she may run in 2016 is polling remarkably. Palin is ahead of Former Senator and high profile 2012 primary candidate Rick Santorum and Governor Jindal, and at 7% she is well within the margin of error, behind by only 2 points, of  Senator Marco Rubio and ex-VP candidate Paul Ryan.

The top three putative candidates Governor Christie Senator Cruz and former Governor Bush are hardly miles ahead with their 12-15% favouritism rankings. It would be stating the obvious that if Senator Cruz did not run that the majority of his support would go to Palin and she would be either at the top or very close to it.

The other key facts are that amongst the decided/not others
Palin + Cruz=21%
Palin/Cruz/Santorum/Paul=38%
Bush/Christie=27%

Thus the Ryan/Rubio/Jindal supporters at 23% hold the Tea Party vs Establishment (who would need at least 18%)balance


Governor Palin's ranking is actually an increase from the last time she was considered (which is rarely which fact in itself depresses her rankings) and bodes extremely well for her prospects should she make a major announcement that she was either seriously considering running, or was forming an exploratory committee. If she actually did run it would be foolish not to believe that her ranking would go much higher and she would be a serious contender.





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