Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Conservative (i.e. Correct) Analysis Of The PPP (Dem) Palin Vs Begich Senate Poll

PPP Polling is a leftist polling outfit (obsessed with same-sex marriage polls) which takes every chance they can to denigrate Sarah Palin.  There may be some same-sex background to this or just straight out bias as would be expected form the Daily Kos pollster but whatever the reason, the anti-Palin bias reflects poorly on what purports to be a professional outfit.

For example, in the poll on the Alaska Senate race, PPP's Tom Jensen  states that "Palin is hated by Alaskans with a 59% disapproval rating" but then goes on to advise that President Obama is simply "an obstacle in Alaska with a 59% disapproval rating." Those sentences put PPP into perspective.

It must be fairly stated that in the nationwide presidential election PPP did extremely well getting a near perfect result in their final state by state predictions in the Obama versus Romney race. 

However on the state and senate level they often go massively awry, (they predicted Cruz and Sanford would lose for example) and there is no reason to take their Alaska poll seriously when they advise that Senator Begich would "take 20% of GOP votes if Palin ran against him." Even on their head to head polling it would only take a normal shift of the "20%" back to the GOP on election day, especially if it was clear that control of the senate hinged on the Alaska result, for Palin to win. Here is a good point in respect of the poll's bias;

PPP 's Alaska poll has 46% that are solid Democrat/Left wing that is about 8% too high.
  1. PPP and Harper Polling did polls last time in Feb , Palin was down 16 in PPP and Harper by 7 . Palin-Begich is a 3 pt race


What can be taken from the poll is that if PPP states that Palin is the choice of Republicans for the senate nomination, then she surely is. The idiots on the left who are carping that Palin has only 36% support can't see that if she runs and Miller pulls out, which would be likely, then the majority of his conservative support would go to her and she would be near or above 50%..
The highly respected "Electoral-Vote.com predicts Palin would defeat Begich "in this very red state"

Here is Conservatives4Palin's take which links to Hot Air's generally positive take on the poll which includes the polling data.

The Alaskan-Senate PPP Poll Proves Governor Palin’s Point


PPP released a poll today which focuses on the 2014 Alaskan-Senate race.  The fact that the mainstream media is using it to create “Palin” headlines proves why she was right recently when she told Sean Hannity that the GOP needed the right candidate to take down Senator Mark Begich.
It’s apparent that Republicans in Alaska believe Governor Palin is far more capable to face Begich than the other GOP choices put to them.  She leads the others by a 10 point margin.  Another poll conducted by another firm a few months back proved the same thing.
But what the poll also shows is that all of the Republican contenders – at this point – fall short of Begich in a general matchup creating the impression that he’ll coast to an easy reelection.
There are a few points to ponder here.
First, general election match-ups this early aren’t much to measure for anything long term.  Governor Palin stated that we needed a formidable and capable candidate for good reason.  As it stands right now, most Alaskans are under the false impression that Mark Begich is an independent.  The Alaskan Chameleon has received more media attention for being a Democrat who occasionally dissents from his party in D.C. than he has for being a liberal who voted for ObamaCare or amnesty for millions of illegals.
The facts are simple.
A.)  Begich won by the skin of his teeth in 2008 only after Ted Stevens was under massive investigation (the late Stevens was cleared on all of that after the election.)
B.)  Since then, Senator Begich has voted with Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid 90% of the time.
C.)  Alaska is a solid red state.
The candidate who faces him in the general election will have to be able to effectively transcend the perception of Begich being an independent as the utter hogwash it actually is by exposing him as the chameleon who votes one way occasionally, but the wrong way most of the time.  And even though the points above prove that it’s completely possible, it just hasn’t been done yet as the right candidate to officially jump in has yet to surface.
As this poll proves, Alaskan Republicans know that Governor Palin’s record as a reformer, campaigner, and a fighter proves she’d easily fit the "right candidate" mold if she chose to do it.  She could also be very instrumental in helping another candidate yet to surface.  And the media’s use of a poll which focuses on many facets of an entire race only to turn around to make the headlines all about her proves it, too.
Either way where Governor Palin is concerned, it’s game on for the Alaskan Chameleon.
 Updates:
A reader made the following point:
Another point to add is that Public Policy Polling has a severe liberal bias. They always claim the most Conservative candidates have no chance of winning in the General elections: in reality Palin would destroy Begich.
Yes many believe this.  I also believe Gov. Palin could win hands down.  Yet, I wanted to take the opportunity to explain Governor Palin’s broader point about replacing Begich.  Because of the perception as his being an independent by many, the right candidate with the ability of effective messaging will need to expose the real truth regarding his big government voting record.  The announced candidates thus far seem to lack that.
Also, (h/t Doug) an interesting piece about the poll has surfaced at Hot Air.