This post was presented at the "A New Conservative Party in 2016 An Open Forum" web site as it fits perfectly into that format. I felt it was also important to present it at this Palin 2016 site, as although Professor Codevilla discusses the history and possible mechanism that may well lead to the formation of a new, genuinely conservative party in 2016, he does not touch on the personalities that such a change requires.
Certainly historic forces, economic and social lead, and are seen clearly in retrospect to do so, to major structural changes in society. The Russian revolution for example, driven on by war and economic collapse, still needed a Lenin to bring structural changes out of the chaos. Thus for the structural change leading to the formation of a new, genuinely conservative party leadership, trusted conservative leadership would be required.
Professor Codevilla discusses the substantial input of conservatives into the GOP who owe the Establishment leadership little or nothing, and who are the core of a possible new party. What is not mentioned is that in many of those elections, and I would expect in many more in 2014, Sarah Palin was a key factor in candidates e.g. a Cruz or a Fischer winning-often from a well behind start.
Palin is an unimpeachable conservative and is highly trusted by the Tea Party faithful. She doesn't need watching and examining like e.g. Rubio, her bona fides are there for all to see. If she continues on the path she advised when leaving Fox of doing all she can to have more conservatives elected in 2014, and is successful, then if and when the "house of cards' collapses she will be in a position to provide the leadership of the new structure.
The latest Bloomberg poll has Republican party approval at 35%. This is the legacy of the GOP establishments 2012 presidential campaign and Karl Rove's subsequent intrusion in to the upcoming candidate selection process. To some the divisions are not able to be healed and instead of continuing on with a battle which will only weaken both sides perhaps, at CPAC.it is time to either declare for a split or put the Establishment on final notice.
Palin has already indicated that a third party is a possibility. Will she set out her 2014 plans and the possibility of more conservatives elected leading to a take over of the GOP or, if that failed, the formation of a third party at CPAC? One would hope so, and given that Palin owes nothing to anybody, she could state those possibilities with impunity and could assume the mantle of leadership of them at that point.
then the internal tensions will be such that the change of leadership, or complete split if that doesn't happen, will be as swift and as final as the collapse of the Whigs which professor Codevilla details.
"As Country Club Republicans Link Up With The Democratic Ruling Class, Millions Of Voters Are Orphaned"
Angelo M. Codevilla is Professor Emeritus of international relations at Boston University and a fellow of the Claremont Institute.
"Today the majority of Republican congressmen plus a minority of senators – dissidents from the Party but solid with their voters – are the natural core of a new party. The name it might bear is irrelevant."
"Moreover to set up the Republican establishment as a separate caucus invites the dissidents to unite and present themselves united as an alternative. That is the natural path to the dissidents forming a new party while Republican leadership dissolves into the Democratic party. In sum, the value of the label “Republican” is problematic."
"A new party is likely to arise because the public holds both Republicans and Democrats responsible for the nation’s unsustainable course. Indebtedness cannot increase endlessly. "
"When – sooner rather than later – events collapse this house of cards, it will be hard to credibly advocate a better future while bearing a label that advertises responsibility for the present. Why trust any Republican Republican?"
"Yet the country class, to defend itself, to cut down the forest of subsidies and privileges that choke America, to curb the arrogance of modern government, cannot shy away from offending the ruling class’ intellectual and moral pretenses. Events themselves show how dysfunctional the ruling class is. But only a political party worthy of the name can marshal the combination of reason, brutal images, and consistency adequately to represent America’s country class."