Friday, December 7, 2012

Palin Finishes Polling Year 5.40 Points Up At 54.25% Inexorable Rise Continues

Sarah Palin continues her seemingly inexorable polling rise as this end of year analysis from 
Election (link at end of this page) shows.Over the 360 day polling period Palin has risen 5.40 points from 49.85%  to her current 54.25%

This is a remarkable result given that she has been shunned by the Republican establishment forces who kept her from the GOP convention in Tampa and pushed her to the campaign sidelines. Not using the power of an obviously popular Republican to energize the base, at least, must surely have been a major mistake by the Romney team.

PPP Polling has confirmed palin's popularity in a poll of Republicans which asked about 2016 presidential election preferences which showed she had a +42 approval rating.
Sarah Palin
+42 (66/24)

Election Meter.Com's polling showing Palin's recent sharp rise in support is even further clarified by taking the poll results out to 90 days as per this graph. 

"The talk of a brokered convention never seems to die down and one interesting finding on this poll was that Sarah Palin is far more popular than any of the actual Republican candidates in the race. Her net favorability is +48, with 68% of voters rating her favorably to only 20% with a negative opinion. That compares favorably to +29 for Santorum, +19 for Romney, and -26 for Paul.
Palin is someone GOP delegates might be able to unify around in the case of a hopelessly deadlocked convention. She is seen positively by Gingrich voters (85/7), Santorum supporters (80/10), and Romney ones (57/27) alike. "

And perhaps the most striking illustration of the true measure of her support is the poll from the commencement of polling by Election Meter.Com
Palin is up a massive 35 points points since 2010.

The new 5,912 vote EM Poll AT THIS LINK gives Palin a 54.25% approval rating. This is her sixth rating above 50% in this poll since early 2009 and shows the long struggle against media distortion she has had to undertake, so the slow and steady rise continues-here is Palin's polling over the last year;

Undertake the long struggle she has done indeed, and her tenacity seems to finally be paying, off as voters now are seeing her in a substantially positive light again.The following factors may also have been significant contributors to her continuous rise

Her strong statements on President Obama's handling of  the economy during the election have clearly elicited a  positive response. Voters look for strength of character and unwavering conviction which, whether one agrees with her views or not, Palin has in abundance

Her winning endorsements for high profile campaigns e.g. Deb Fischer's come from behind Senate primary wins, and Ted Cruz's remarkable rise in Texas- both of whom won their general election campaigns all with Palin's support. The perceived unfairness to Palin by the Romney team in hiring someone who has spoken negatively about to run his campaign, and of course their stonewalling Palin being invited to Tampa

Yes certainly, the Election Meter poll is an on-line poll and can be discounted to a degree because of that. However, when Palin was at her absolute nadir in this poll in 2010 at 19.2% her enemies would have seized on it as being representative of a general feeling. 

There is some degree of validity to that view, although it is distorted and extreme, but on the other hand the steady, seemingly inexorable rise since then must also reflect a wider reality-which will of course be ignored by her enemies.

The longer term graphs which, because of the time frame involved, must be valid in the wider context they support. Surely the absolute polling height of 72% in 2008 ) was a genuine reflection of reality at that time.