Monday, October 29, 2012

Not One Of These Major Electoral College Predictors Has Ever Shown Romney Leading Why Should That Change Now?

Even at President Obama's low point after the first debate the highly successful and highly rated Princeton Election Consortium (Dr. Wang) never had Obama below the 270 Electoral College votes required to win as per this chart:

Currently these major polling analysts have President Obama above 270 EC votes. Romney has never been in front in Ohio above the margin of error and without that state his path to 270 is extremely difficult if not impossible. Obama on the other hand can still win even if he loses Florida/North Carolina/Virginia and Ohio (although he would have to pull an inside straight-Wisconsin/Iowa/Colorado/Nevada for 272 EV's) but winning any one of the big four would seal the deal for him with Ohio being the most likely.

All the "Romentum" articles are there to, hopefully on the media's part, get eyeballs and advertising revenue. If Romney wins,in the EC (he may actually win the popular vote) in spite of all these major polling pundits it will the biggest upset since Truman

Electoral vote predictions 10/28: (Click the links for data/maps/analysis
RealClearPolitics: O 290 – R 248 HuffPost: O 277 – R 206
AP: O 271 - R 206
538/NYT: O 295.5 – R 242.5
Electoral Vote: O 284 - R 235

270 to Win: O 294 - R 244

EVEN Karl Rove gives Obama the edge: O 237 - 206