Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Virgil Goode Confirmed On Virginia Presidential Ballot;Goodbye To Romney?

The Constitutional Party's candidate for president Virgil Goode of Virginia has been confirmed as having raised enough signatures to qualify to be on the ballot in Virginia in November, as per the report AT THIS LINK.

This appears the end of the GOP's desperate attempt to keep him off the ballot by challenging his signatures, as they did successfully in Ohio although they are attempting one last throw of the dice. Even if ultimately succesful, that sort of desperation might have a worse rebound affect if voters view their genuine wishes having been thwarted by trickery.

Goode's Virginia access is worse than Ohio for the GOP's hopes as, as I set out below, it is President Obama's firewall state and if Romney loses it his path to Electoral College victory is extremely difficult.There is a path but it is highly improbable and requires the House to choose the president.

The other possible disaster or the GOP, as pointed out in analysis, is that Goode may have a negative effect on the Virginia senate race tipping thevery close race to the Dem's
and keeping the senate in Dem's control.

Regarding the possible Romney path to victory via the House of representatives, the resident poltical analysts "technopeasant" at C4p advises;

It almost appears now my 279-259 EV scenario may play out but if Romney upsets Obama in Wisconsin it could end up as a 269-269 tie.

Here is what is possible (Using the Rasmussen model of the electoral college):

Obama starts off with 247 EV and Romney 196 EV, which includes NC.

Add FL, OH and MO, Iowa to Romney's total you get another 63 EV taking Romney to 259 EV.

If Obama then wins VA, CO and WI he then wins another 32 EV taking him to 279 EV.

Again if Obama loses WI (Wisconsin) it becomes 269-269 a tie. I definitely would NOT rule that scenario out.

Virginia is, according to the analysis of many pundits, the key state for the 2012 campaign.Here is the latest update from the website of the Constitutional Party AT THIS LINK .

There is a very strong possibility of Goode drawing enough votes from Romney to ensure President Obama takes the state again. If that happens and even if Romney won Florida/North Carolina/Ohio and Iowa he would still lose.
This begs the question, if Palin were the nominee would Goode be a factor in Virginia? Would he even have obtained the required number of signatures?

President Obama said on the stump in Roanoke Virginia, and quite correctly " When we get Virginia we will win this election." As the map below shows, yes indeed, Virginia is the key to the November election. If Obama carries it he can lose North Carolina, Florida and even Ohio, and still get to the 270 Electoral College votes required.

This also goes to show how difficult Mitt Romney's battle in the Electoral College is.Even if Romney wins Florida he still loses 279-259 as per the map below.

Of course anything can happen between now and November and if there is a massive economic collapse President Obama might well suffer the consequences as did John McCain in 2008. McCain had, because of Sarah Palin, actually passed Obama in the polls, but once Lehman Brothers/TARP and McCain suspending his campaign eventuated, nothing Palin could do could save him.

But barring an October surprise of such magnitude, fact that the election could well be over, all bar the shouting. Virgil Goode, the presidential candidate of the very conservative Constitutional Party will be on the ballot in a number of states, including Virginia and perhaps Pennsylvania and Colorado. Obviously 1-2% of the vote, taken from Romney, may make all the difference, but it is Virginia,which Obama won closely in 2008 that matters most.

Goode is from, and very popular in, down-state Virginia. Which is, unfortunately for Romney the conservative part of the state. It is key to balancing Northern Virginia, where Obama ran up huge majorities in 2008 which enabled him to defeat McCain in this previously safe Republican state.

PPP Polling has released Virginia polling which found President Obama leading Romney by 8 points 50%-42%. Naturally there will be ups and owns and the race has tightened to the around 2% that Obama won it by in 2008, or Romney might have won it sans Goode by that margin. But with Virgil Goode now on the ballot, this PPP polling result, in italics below,
FROM THIS LINK could be utter disaster for Romney;

"-If Virgil Goode gets on the ballot in Virginia it could spell trouble for Romney. He pulls 9% of the vote, getting most of his support from Republicans and conservative leaning independents. With him in the picture Obama's lead pushes out to 14 points at 49-35. It's highly unlikely Goode would get 9% in the end but he certainly could make a difference if Virginia ended up being more like a 1-2 pt race. Goode staying off the ballot may be vital to Romney's prospects there."

Of course, and as PPP rightly points out it is unlikely that Goode will get 9% even given that he is a local and well liked but if he takes even 2% which seems quite possibly given the possibility of a "Mormon Bradley effect" then Virginia would be lost on current polling and with it most likely the election for Romney. Everything between now and November 6th is chasing the wind politically, with Goode gets on the Virginia ballot the election is effectively "sound and fury signifying nothing" and the wind will be a hurricane in favor of President Obama.

Here is an earlier local report (you can read the entire column) which explains the 'down home appeal and significance of Goode in Virginia
AT THIS LINK from the Richmond Times-Dispatch which the rest of the media has chosen to ignore for obvious reasons as if the election is over they will have nothing to write about.


By Elizabeth Dias | @elizabethjdias | August 1, 2012

Virgil Goode glides through the doors of a McDonald's in Farmville, VA, at 11:52 am and instantly three construction workers in the back booth rise to their feet. ”I’ve been wanting to shake your hand a long time, sir,” says Jeremy Clay of nearby Evington, extending a hand to the former Congressman. His buddy Jeremy Rawlings of Lynchburg does the same, and asks which line to sign on Goode’s petition to get on the presidential ballot. “If Obama gets re-elected, we’re all doomed,” Rawlings says as he scrawls his name. Goode asks in his Virginia drawl how business is faring. Two postal workers who have joined the group shake their heads—“We’re on the line,” one says. Goode asks about their families as they take photos on their cell phones. Then he orders a vanilla ice cream cone and heads down Main Street to gather more names.

Goode is running for president on the Constitution Party ticket, and his candidacy has Republicans sweating: Goode is pulling fully 9% of Virginia’s vote, according to a mid-July Public Policy Polling survey, leaving Obama ahead of Romney 49% to 35%. In a tight election where Virginia’s 13 electoral college votes could make or break the Romney’s candidacy, even 2% for Goode could pull enough Republicans away to hand the historically red state to Obama in November.

Goode could easily maintain at least a few percentage points in Virginia through the fall. He remains a popular local figure who served in the Virginia State Senate for 24 years and then then represented VA’s 5th district in the U.S. House until 2009. His platform is simple—he can recite it under 15 seconds. “One: balance the budget now, not later. Two: Get Americans jobs by ending illegal immigration and making legal immigration harder. Lastly: Impose term limits.”
PictureIt’s a message that appeals to many voters in rural, small-town Virginia. His Old Dominion charm is a break from a national race that can often seem impersonal. Goode remembers where his former constituents’ kids go to school, when their siblings moved to a nearby county, and how their family businesses have fared for the past two or three generations. He opens all his own doors—and all doors for his staffers—and makes sure that women enter first. He attends Pleasant Hill Methodist Church (though he’s Baptist) and spends his days on the trail at chicken festivals and gun shoots. To top it off, he narrowly missed giving a speech at a memorial dedication because he stopped en route to save a beagle who was hit by a truck—he even paid a passerby to drive the dog to the vet before he continued on his way.

Many supporters in Farmville support Goode for his conservative economics and social policies. He wants to eliminate foreign aid, issue a moratorium on 1.2 million green cards, and audit the Federal Reserve. For James Ailsworth, owner of Farmville’s Key’s Office Supply store, signing Goode’s ballot petition comes down to just one issue. “Which side of the check do your supporters sign? We’ve got a guy up there who signs the back side,” he says, referring to Obama and the national debt. Goode doesn’t miss a beat. “Front side.” Ailsworth grabs a pen: “I’ll sign.” A woman in the checkout line signed up because of Goode’s immigration positions–he doesn’t support automatic U.S. citizenship for children born of undocumented parents, saying that the policy misconstrues an amendment to the Constitution, and he believes that showing a birth or naturalization certificate should be required to receive social service benefits. “You’re like I am,” she says. “We take care of our own first.”

Beyond Virginia, Goode has his work cut out for him. The Richmond native has already made it onto the ballot in 17 states and aims to expand that number to 40. Only 477,000 Americans are known to be registered Constitution Party voters, according to records from their national headquarters (whose phone number happens to be 1-800-2-VETO-IRS). But that figure does not take into account states like Virginia, where voter registration by party is not required. Goode hopes to have some success in Pennsylvania, home state of his running mate, Jim Clymer. He’s also focusing on key swing states like Ohio, Florida and Missouri.

Goode readily admits his odds of winning the White House are long. He forgoes fundraisers and declines PAC donations, caps individual contributions at $200, and relies on just four staff members, only one of whom is full time. He says he’s lucky to raise $1,000/week. But that is his whole point. “If you want big money candidates, you’ve got two great ones running,” he says. “Maybe a day or two before the election, the American people will wake up and say, We’ve had enough.”

So, considering the close contest, does Goode see a vote for him as a vote for Obama? “No,” he says. “I’m taking votes away from Obama as well as Romney.” So far no one from the Romney camp has tried to dissuade him from running, Goode says. At least not yet. But one thing is for sure: Goode is almost guaranteed to be on Virginia’s ballot. He has already has collected 17,000 signatures, well beyond the 10,000 required by the state’s August 24 deadline. And if there’s one state where he can make a difference, it’s his own.