Monday, September 3, 2012

Shock Gallup Report "GOP Convention Had Minimal Impact." Worst Net Impact On Record

Gallup released AT THIS LINK a shocking, for the GOP that is, report which showed, in their words:

 " Last week's Republican National Convention had a minimal impact on Americans' self-reported voting intentions, with just about as many saying the convention made them less likely to vote for Mitt Romney as say it made them more likely to vote for him."

Further, in rating Romney's speech as either good or excellent Romney scored 38% compared to John McCain's 2008 speech where he scored 47%. Romney score was the lowest of Gallup's shown records of any convention address by the nominee.

The 38% who rated the speech as excellent or good is the lowest rating of any of the eight speeches Gallup has tested since Bob Dole's GOP acceptance speech in 1996

Their tracking polling has President Obama still 1 point ahead so effectively there has been zero convention "bounce" for Romney, whereas the median historic bounce has been 5 points.

Today's Real Clear Politics AT THIS LINK tracking poll show that from the start of the GOP convention to September 3rd Romney has gained 0.4 points. By this time, i.e. 8 days from the start of the 2008 convention McCain/Palin were 2.4 points ahead of Obama starting from a 4.5 point deficit at the opening of their convention.

According to the Gallup organization AT THIS LINK the median post convention "bounce" is a 5 point increase. That is, a candidate can expect, whether their nominating convention is the first or second one of the election season, to be five points better after the convention than they were prior to it.

As of today, Gallup's tracking poll has Romney one point behind President Obama at 46% to Obama's 47%. This is 8 days from the commencement of the convention and two days post convention.

Gallup's 7 day tracking average AT THIS LINK from August 27th, the start of the Republican convention to August 28th has Obama 47% and Romney 46% and the same figures from August 25th to August 31st, the 31st being the last day of the convention.

The crucial figures are for seven days tracking August 26th to September 1st, which still has Obama 47% and Romney 46% thus showing no "bounce" at all. This is, according to Gallup's history below, the worst performance from a Republican candidate and the worst of any candidate except John Kerry.

In contrast McCain/Palin received a 6 point post convention lift.

U.S. presidential candidates historically have seen a median increase of five percentage points in their support in preference polls among registered voters after their party's nominating convention. The average is slightly higher, six points, due to the record 16-point increase for Bill Clinton after the 1992 Democratic convention.

Historical Convention Bounces, 1964-2008 Gallup Polls, Registered Voters