Sunday, September 2, 2012

Romney"s Post Convention Zero "Bounce" Worst In Gallup's Recorded History

According to the Gallup organization AT THIS LINK the median post convention "bounce" is a 5 point increase. That is, a candidate can expect, whether their nominating convention is the first or second one of the election season, to be five points better after the convention than they were prior to it.

As of today, Gallup's tracking poll has Romney one point behind President Obama at 46% to Obama's 47%. This is 8 days from the commencement of the convention and two days post convention.

Gallup's 7 day tracking average AT THIS LINK from August 27th, the start of the Republican convention to August 28th has Obama 47% and Romney 46% and the same figures from August 25th to August 31st, the 31st being the last day of the convention.

The crucial figures are for seven days tracking August 26th to September 1st, which still has Obama 47% and Romney 46% thus showing no "bounce" at all. This is, according to Gallup's history below, the worst performance from a Republican candidate and the worst of any candidate except John Kerry.

In contrast McCain/Palin received a 6 point post convention lift.

U.S. presidential candidates historically have seen a median increase of five percentage points in their support in preference polls among registered voters after their party's nominating convention. The average is slightly higher, six points, due to the record 16-point increase for Bill Clinton after the 1992 Democratic convention.

Historical Convention Bounces, 1964-2008 Gallup Polls, Registered Voters