Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Just Saying; Ryan Campaign/Crowds/Ticket Boost Compared To Palin's An Indicator for 2016?

Update; An earlier edition of this post had a report from Politico's Simon that described Paul Ryan as saying that Romney's campaign  had a "stench' about it. This was, apparently an attempt at "satire". I apologize for my error in accepting the apparent words of a once was respected journalist. The balance of the post  still is germaine.

 Ryan will have, unlike Palin (whose decision not to attend the GOP convention/be considered for the ticket looks more and more like genius) will certainly have a major burden to overcome if he wants to run in 2016. Whatever may be said of Palin's campaign there is absolutely no opprobrium attached to her from McCain's performance.

Here is the, admittedly partisan “Votemasters” view of the vice-presidential campaign of Paul Ryan too date. It basically covers the article about Ryan in the, admittedly shockingly partisan, Washington Post.

However, although a political opponent  I respect the “Votemaster’ (with whom I have had some dialogue which mostly consisted of me pointing out what I thought ere analytical biases on his site) I respect his work at the highly informative Electoral-Vote.com site. His analysis of the various polls has been a feature of elections going back to 2000 and has been wrong only once (in 2004).

 In his overview of Ryan’s performance I can’t help but contrast the general feeling about that campaign with Palin’s in 2009. Palin massively energized the Republican base and, were it not for the Lehman brother’s collapse, who knows how things might have turned out for the McCain ticket.


 We do know, if we accept the leftist view from the N.Y. Times “538.com” that Palin had no negative effect on McCain’s result, and exit polling on election day showed she was a plus for the ticket.

At this point , except for a few days after the Ryan announcement, if we take the Wisconsin poll as a guide, and the crowd size for Ryan and, most tellingly I think the Twitterverse becoming more and more silent about Ryan, which I take as an indication he is not seen as a threat anymore by the left, then Palin brought a much greater dynamic.

 To me this means that, should Ryan wish to run for the presidency in 2016, the enthusiasm factor would have to be something the rank and file voters might wish to consider in the primary campaigns. If that were a major aspect of who would be chosen between Palin and Ryan there would be only one winner.

Ryan Became Romney Instead of Romney Becoming Ryan

Conservatives who cheered Mitt Romney's selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) as his running mate in the hope this indicated a more aggressive, more conservative stance for Romney have been sorely disappointed. They had expected Ryan's bold style to rub off on Romney. Instead it is the other way: Ryan has become muted and vague, like Romney. The problem is certainly not Ryan. All vice-presidential candidates know who the boss is and Ryan is surely doing precisely what his boss wants: look sharp but be vague about all the details.
In the six weeks since he was tapped, Ryan hasn't given a single national press conference although he has done interviews for local media outlets--which typically don't push the interviewee very hard. His stump speech rarely mentions his plan to replace Medicare with a voucher system. Instead he attacks President Obama and plays up his bow-hunting abilities and working-class background. None of this is the red meat conservatives had expected, but one sees Team Romney's fingerprints all over it. The one time Ryan did talk about Medicare, at the annual AARP convention, he was roundly booed. To make things even worse, he was supposed to put Wisconsin in play, but our current average of six recent polls gives Obama a lead there of 51% to 45%.
In fact, his net effect on the ticket is probably negative. A new Ipsos poll shows that 44% think Ryan is not qualified to be President while 29% think he is. Given that in the absence of an evenly divided Senate, the Vice President's only job is to call the White House every morning at 8 A.M. to see if the President is still alive, this is clearly not a good sign. But there is still hope for Ryan. Only 56% of registered voters even know who he is.