in 2008, it’s not quite clear what would have happened if not for
the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which occurred about two weeks after
the party conventions. Mr. Obama very probably still would have won,
but it might have been by a smaller margin had the economic problems
not become so acute so quickly."
to agree based on the margins in the key states in 2008. Certainly
without Lehman Bros. collapse Florida/North Carolina/Indiana which
were lost by only between 1-3 points might easily have gone to
Palin/McCain. Ohio at a 4 loss quite possibly. Virginia lost by 6
would have been marginal.
Colorado, lost by 8 and Iowa by 9 would have had to be won to take
McCain/Palin to 275 Electoral College votes and the win
(270 being needed).
last two look a bridge too far and thus even with Palin's best
efforts the Bush inheritance would have been to difficult to
a great interactive map where each state can be moused to see the
previous voting history at this