Wednesday, September 5, 2012

2008 Revisited; If Not For Lehman Bros Collapse Could McCain/Palin Have Won?

                                                     2016 Would Bring a Better Result

At 538.3 (NYT) Nate Silver has President Obama running away with the election with his forecast model giving Obama a 76.3% chance of winning 

Silver's analysis included this:

"And in 2008, it’s not quite clear what would have happened if not for the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which occurred about two weeks after the party conventions. Mr. Obama very probably still would have won, but it might have been by a smaller margin had the economic problems not become so acute so quickly." 

I have to agree based on the margins in the key states in 2008. Certainly without Lehman Bros. collapse Florida/North Carolina/Indiana which were lost by only between 1-3 points might easily have gone to Palin/McCain. Ohio at a 4 loss quite possibly. Virginia lost by 6 would have been marginal.

Then Colorado, lost by 8 and Iowa by 9 would have had to be won to take McCain/Palin to 275 Electoral College votes and the win (270 being needed).

The last two look a bridge too far and thus even with Palin's best efforts the Bush inheritance would have been to difficult to overcome. has a great interactive map where each state can be moused to see the previous voting history at this link